河南省2000—2007年人均生态足迹动态变化及其驱动力分析

Dynamic Analysis of Ecological Footprint of Henan Province from 2000 to 2007 and Its Driving Forces

利用生态足迹理论,分别计算河南省2000—2007年的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力,以定量研究河南省的可持续发展状态。在此基础上选取人均GDP、城市化率、恩格尔系数、第三产业比重、居民消费水平、人均固定资产、投资农业现代化程度、人均耕地面积等8项经济驱动因子,利用主成分分析法进一步定量分析社会经济发展对人均生态足迹动态变化的驱动作用。结果表明,河南省人均生态足迹从2000年的1.745796hm2增加到2007年的3.019299hm2,而生态承载力由2000年的0.373397hm2下降到2007年的0.361618hm2,导致生态赤字逐年增大,且人均生态足迹高于全国以及相邻省份;社会经济强烈驱动着人均生态足迹的变化,其中人均GDP、城市化率、居民消费水平、农业现代化程度等与人均生态足迹有较强的相关性,是影响区域人均生态足迹动态变化的主要因素。

On the basis of ecological footprint theory,the per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity of Henan Province from 2000 to 2007 were calculated in this paper in order to study quantitatively the state of sustainable development of Henan Province.And then using principal component analysis method,selecting eight economic driving factors such as per-capita GDP,urbanization ratio,Engel＇s coefficient,proportion of the industry,consumption level,per capita fixed assets investment,agricultural modernization level and per capita arable land,the driving function of socio-economic development on per capita ecological footprints change was studied as well.The results showed that：①The per capita ecological footprint increased gradually from 1.745796hm^2 in 2000 to 3.019299hm^2 in 2007.But the ecological carrying capacity decreased from 0.373397hm^2 in 2000 to 0.361618hm^2 in 2007,leading to an ecological deficit increasing every year.Its per capita ecological footprint was higher than the national as well as the neighboring provinces.②Socio-economic changes were the strong drivers for the per capita ecological footprint.Especially,the per capita GDP,urbanization ratio,consumption level and agricultural modernization level had stronger correlations to per capita ecological footprint,which were the main causes of this dynamics change of regional per capita ecological footprint.