兆瓦级直驱风力发电机组可靠性增长预测

MW Level Direct-driven Wind Turbine Reliability Growth Prediction

针对试运行阶段的兆瓦级风力发电机组,提出基于广义伽玛分布的系统可靠性增长预测方法。根据随机过程和可靠性增长预测理论,阐明风电机组试运行过程中伴随维修的故障次数遵从非齐次泊松过程的规律,分析了机组未来故障时间分布,预测机组未来故障时间及故障时刻平均无故障工作时间的点估计及区间估计,引入方差系数,讨论了未来故障时间的预测精度。最后用机组试运行数据验证该方法的有效性。研究表明,该方法可以准确预测试运行阶段的风电机组可靠性。

Based on the generalized gamma distribution a system reliability growth prediction method was proposed for MW level direct-drive wind turbine in the trial operation phase.According to the random processes and reliability growth prediction theory,the law that number of wind turbine failure occurrence accompanied with repair obeys non-homogeneous Poisson process was clarified during the trial operation phase,the future failure number distribution was analyzed,the point estimations and interval estimations of the future failure number and mean time between failures（MTBF） were predicted,the future failure number prediction accuracy was discussed through introducing the variance coefficient,and finally,this method was validated by the wind turbine running data.The results show that the proposed method is of high accuracy.