林产品价格的时间序列分析——以福州贮木场松杉原木价格为例

Time-Series Analysis on the Price of Forestry Product——An example of log price of Masson pine and Chinese fir in Fuzhou timber yard

对福州贮木场松杉原木月价格进行时间序列分析,采用EViews5.0软件所做的实证分析结果表明:福州贮木场松杉原木月价格变化具有非平稳性和弱季节性特点,ARIMA模型对其价格序列具有良好的拟合效果,能够有效地预测其价格动态变化。

Time-series analysis is conducted on forestry product price taking an example of pine log price in Fujian timber yard.According to empirical analysis,time series of pine log price in Fujian timber yard is characterized with instability and weak-seasonal fluctuation and time-series analysis on forestry product price using ARIMA model has the satisfying simulating effect.