农村人口出行方式选择模型

Selection model of trip modes for rural population

基于非集计模型的基本理论与建模方法,根据全国12个省1249份农村人口的出行调研数据,分析了影响农村人口出行方式选择的因素,选择步行、自行车、摩托车、农用车、客车、私家车6种交通方式作为农村人口出行方式选择肢,确定了影响农村人口出行方式选择的变量及相应的取值方法,建立了农村人口出行方式选择模型,并选取400份农村人口出行数据对模型进行了验证。计算结果表明:各种出行方式的计算值与统计值的最大绝对误差是4.0%,说明模型计算精度较高。

Referring to the 1 249 survey data of rural population in 12 provinces of China,the influence factors of trip selection modes were analyzed.Based on the theory of disaggregate discrete choice and its modelling method,6 daily trip modes including walk,bicycle,motorcycle,agricultural truck,bus and private car were selected as the alternatives of trip modes,the characteristic variables affecting mode choice and the method getting their values were determined,and a multinomial logit（MNL）model was developed.Another 400 trip data of rural population were selected to testify the model＇ s validity.The result shows that the maximal absolute error between statistical data and computational values by MNL is 4.0%,so MNL has high accuracy.10 tabs,1 fig,12 refs.