基于二次指数平滑的干预模型在CCI中的应用

Application of Double Exponential Smoothing Model in CCI

利用Eviews软件和二次指数平滑的干预模型方法对我国消费者信心指数建立了动态模型,并预测了未来4个月消费者信心的发展趋势.结果表明,此模型比较好地解释了我国消费者信心指数发展的动态结构,使政府能有效监控主要经济变量的未来走势,制定合理的政策提供参考依据.

In this paper, eviews software and double exponential smoothing model intervention approach were used to establish a dynamic model on China＇s consumer confidence index and the trend of consumer confidence in the next four months.The results show that this model explains well the dynamic structure of the development of China＇s consumer confidence index, and provides the government with effective monitoring of the trend of the main economic variables in the future and good reference for developing a reasonable policy.