海口市滨海旅游区LUCC变化趋势预测

Study on the LUCC Trend of the Coastal Resorts of Haikou City

选取海口市滨海旅游区作为研究对象,以1991,2001,2008年遥感影像为主要数据源,采用面向对象信息提取技术,提取了海口市滨海旅游区1991～2008年土地利用/土地覆盖信息,并结合GIS技术手段,利用马尔柯夫预测模型,对未来20年左右土地利用变化的趋势进行了预测,结果表明:海口滨海旅游区有林地、耕地、湿地和未利用地将不断减少,至2029年,面积分别为2489.47,21474.88,1233.37,756.10hm2;建设用地持续增加至24605.34hm2,水域缓慢增加到10870.14hm2.研究区各土地利用类型在2008～2015年间变化幅度最大,而后变化的幅度有所减弱.

This paper selects the coastal resorts of Haikou City as the research object and remote sensing image of 1991,2001,2008 as the main data source. The object-oriented information extraction technology as well as the Land usage and cover information of the coastal tourist areas in Haikou City from 1991 to 2008 were also used in this paper. Combined with GIS ecology and Markov prediction model, the paper has forecasted the trend of land usage＇s change in the 20a within the next period, the results show that： the areas of forest, farmland, wetlands and unutilized land in coastal resorts will continue to decline, in 2029, the corresponding area will be 2 489.47 hm^2, 21 474.88 hm^2, 1 233.37 hm^2, 756.10 hm^2 respectivly; the area of the land for construction will continue to increase to 24 605.34 hm^2, and the water area will increase to 10 870.14 hm^2 slowly. The variation range of each type of land usage in the research area is largest between 2008 and 2015, and then will be weakened.