中国潜在产出的估计与“自然率假说”的检验

The Estimation of China's Potential Output and the "Natural-rate Hypothesis" Test

本文通过重新估计我国在1952～2008年间的实际资本存量,推导出我国的潜在产出和GDP缺口,并对"自然率假说"进行了检验。研究结果表明,我国资本弹性约为0.6749,全要素生产率大约经历了9个周期。通过对三种估计产出缺口方法所得到的结果进行比较后发现,对于经历过自然条件冲击和技术革新的国家来说,生产函数法优于直接H-P趋势法和估计潜在增长率法。在对"自然率假说"进行检验后,本文认为,我国1952～2008年的数据拒绝了"自然率假说",当前产出缺口的提高会提高我国的一般价格水平。

This paper it re-estimated the actual capital stock of China between 1952 and 2008, derived the country＇s potential output and the GDP gap and examined the ＂natural - rate hypothesis＂ The results showed that the capital elastic- ity of China was about 0. 6749 and the total factor productivity had undergone about nine cycles around. Through comparing the results obtained by three kinds of meth- ods to count the output gap, it found that the production function methodology is superior to the methodology of the direct H - P filter and the methodology of poten- tial growth rate to countries who had experienced the impact of natural shocks and technological innovation. After the testing of the ＂natural - rate hypothesis＂, this paper found that it rejected the ＂natural rate hypothesis＂ on the data of between 1952 and 2008 and the increasing of output gap would reduce the general price level in China.