中国金融资产价格波动与经常项目失衡研究被引量：1

Study On Fluctuations of Financial Assets Price in China and the Current Account Imbalance

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摘要本文从财富效应理论出发,运用E-G协整检验和Granger因果检验,探讨中国金融资产价格波动对经常项目失衡的影响。结论是由于中国资本市场本身的特点以及金融约束的存在,金融资产的财富效应在中国不明显;金融资产价格的上升导致实际有效汇率升值,但汇率变动效应的不完全使得经常项目盈余反而上升。本文认为必须稳步发展中国资本市场,提高金融资产的财富效应,促进消费以减少经常项目长期盈余;同时,刺激内需以提高私人消费,增加进口,实现经常项目相对平衡;升值无助于消除经常项目盈余,中国不应让人民币升值。 From the theory of wealth effect, the paper analyzes the fluctuations of China financial asset＇s price affecting the Current Account using E - G Cointegration test and Granger test. The conclusion is that since there are the China stock market＇s features and the financial constraints, the wealth effect is not so apparent. Rising of the stock＇ price led appreciation of the real exchange rate, while the uncompleted pass - through effect is existed, surpluses of the Current Account increase. To improve the wealth effect, the China capital market should be developed stably, and the private consume should be expanded to get down the trade surpluses~ Because revaluation of RMB cannot change the trade imbalance, China shouldn＇t have RMB revalued.

作者王叙果范从来冯彩

机构地区南京审计学院金融学院南京大学商学院

出处《数量经济技术经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2010年第7期119-131,141,共14页 Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基金 2009年教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"资助江苏省"青蓝工程"科技创新团队资助中国博士后科学基金项目"中国外部均衡目标选择及福利效应研究"(20080441033) 江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目(08SJB7900017)的研究成果

关键词金融资产价格波动经常项目失衡财富效应 Financial Assets Fluctuations of Price Current Account Imbalance Wealth Effect

分类号 F830 [经济管理—金融学]

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