金融稳定与经济稳定均衡的货币政策反应规则研究

The Monetary Policy Rule Research Based on the Equilibrium of Financial Stability and Economy Stability

文章从金融机构破产风险的角度,把银行系统作为金融稳定问题的中心,研究了货币政策和金融稳定相互作用问题。以基差风险为切入点,从理论上论证了宏观经济稳定和金融稳定之间存在均衡解,但是过高的基差风险权重系数可能导致宏观经济不稳定;并且综合了滞后变量和利率期货前瞻性变量,对泰勒规则进行了扩展,构建了新的理论模型并做出评价。这为保持金融市场稳定和制定货币政策拓宽了新的视野。

From the standpoint of financial institution bankruptcy risk,regarding the banking system as the center of the financial stability problem,this paper studies the interaction between monetary policy and financial stability.By the breakthrough point of basis risk,the paper theoretically demonstrates that there is an equilibrium between the macroeconomic stability and financial stability,but the excessive basis risk weight coefficient may lead to macroeconomic instability;and with a combination of lagged variables and interest rate futures forward-looking variables,Taylor rule is extended and a new theoretical model is built and evaluated.The work above may help to increase financial stability and make scientific monetary policy.