我国房地产价格波动对银行资产的影响分析

The Influences of Price Fluctuation of Chinese Real Estate on Banking Assets

房地产价格波动对银行资产的影响是一个动态过程。通过分析房地产价格波动对银行资产影响的作用机制,基于VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法进行研究表明:房地产价格波动对银行资产有长期正的影响,房地产价格的上涨会导致银行信贷量投放增加;实际利率的变化短期对房地产价格有负的影响,但是对于我国房地产市场长期来说,这种负的影响会消除,甚至会出现背离。

The influences of price fluctuation of Chinese real estate are a dynamic process.Based on VAR model and by using impulse response function and variance decomposition,the research shows that the price fluctuation of real estate has a long-term positive effect on banking assets and the rise of price causes the increase of credit funds,while the short-term changes of interests have negative effects.But in the long term for the Chinese real estate market,the negative effects will disappear.