基于熵理论的水资源与经济社会协调发展模糊综合评价模型

A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of social-economic development in line with water resources based on entropy theory

水资源与经济社会发展研究是评估水资源对经济社会的支撑能力,其最终落脚点是甄别出区域水资源与经济社会协调发展最佳模式。基于指标体系的综合评价方法则是目前用于方案评价和比选的最热门的理论方法。本文建立了基于熵理论的模糊综合评价模型,从经济社会、生态环境、水资源、水资源开发利用4个方面提出了水资源与经济社会协调发展指标体系。将该模型应用于宁夏自治区水资源与经济社会发展研究中,选用了4个准则层共10个指标的评价指标体系,选出了宁夏水资源与经济社会协调发展的最优方案。

The study on relationship between water resources and social-economic development is mainly to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity. The key point is to identify the best pattern of the coordinated development of water resources, economy and society. The comprehensive evaluation method based on index system is one of the most popular methods for program evaluation, comparison and selection. This paper builds a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on the entropy theory, and proposes an indicator system for evaluating the coordinated development of water resources, economy and society from the following 4 aspects： socio-economy, ecological environment, water resources, water resources development and utilization. The model was applied in Ningxia, with 10 indexes at 4 rule hierarchy. An optimal solution of the coordinated development of water resources, economy and society in Ningxia was worked out.