基于熵权的洪水资源利用风险效益模糊评价

Fuzzy Evaluation Model of Risk and Benefit of Flood Resources Utilization Based on Entropy Weight

对于洪水资源安全合理利用问题,提出了评价指标体系的构建原则,给出了风险和效益可选指标集,基于多级模糊优选原理,引入熵权的概念,构建了洪水资源利用风险效益综合评价模型.该模型针对不同的洪水资源利用方式和评价范围,用风险树法对风险因素识别,用功能与需求耦合法对效益指标识别,构成评价指标体系;用熵值确定各指标的权向量,利用指标具体变异程度反映信息的效用程度,消除指标权重确定的人为因素;用多级模糊优选原理进行综合评价,具有适用性广、涵盖面宽、可选择性强等特点.以白城市月亮泡水库为实例进行综合评价,结果表明该模型不仅能够用于方案优选,还能对每个方案给予优劣评价,更显综合评价合理性,其结果更加可靠,为安全科学地利用洪水资源提供了重要的决策依据.

A construction principle of evaluation index system and an optional index set of risk and benefit is presented with regard to safe and reasonable utilization of flood resources.Based on the multilevel fuzzy optimization theory,the concept of entropy weight is applied to constract a comprehensive evaluation model of risk and benefit of flood resources utilization.In accordance with different utilization patterns and evaluation ranges,the model uses risk tree analysis to identify risk factor,utilizes the coupling method of function and demand to identify benefit indices and composes evaluation index system accordingly;and it utilizes entropy values to determine weight vectors of each index and uses variation degree of the indices to reflect effectiveness degree of information,consequently the anthropogenic factors of weights are eliminated.The model is applied to evaluate the risk and benefit of flood resources utilization of Yueliangpao Reservoir in Baicheng City,and the evaluation results is highly rational,reliable and practical.Consequently,the model can not only be used for optimization of different schemes but also for evaluation of each scheme.It can be a basis of decision-making in scientific utilization of flood resources.