中国存款美元化演进的原因及其实证研究

Evolving Reasons and Empirical Study of Deposit Dollarization in China

本文分析了近十年中国美元存款及其结构的变化,探讨了导致这些发展变化的理论和可能的现实原因。利用多元回归模型的分析证实了人民币汇率尤其是名义汇率、拉动经济发展的外商投资和外需是美元存款变化的主要原因;储蓄美元存款的变化对存款美元化演进的贡献大于同期企业美元存款的贡献。根据本文的分析,中国应尽快转变经济发展方式。

The article analyzes dollar deposits and its structural change in China in recent years, discusses theories and possible practical reasons which contribute to the change. Using is confirmed that RMB exchange rate, in particular, the nominal exchange multiple regression model＇s analysis, it rate, foreign investment and external demand of promoting economic development are the main reasons for changing dollar deposits ; change of dollar deposit of residents contributes more to change of deposit dollarization than dollar deposit of enterprises in the same period. On the basis of the analysis, the article suggests that China should accelerate the transformation of the pattern of economic development.