海洋不可再生资源可持续开发的系统动力学机制研究——以海洋石油资源为例

Dynamic Mechanism of Marine Nonrenewable Resource Sustainable Exploitation——a Case of Offshore Oil Resource

本文运用系统动力学理论和方法,分析海洋不可再生资源开发中内在的信息反馈结构与机制。以海洋石油资源为例,建立了海洋石油开发的系统动力学模型。以近几年中国海洋石油公司对海洋石油的勘探开发数据为基础进行分析,模型模拟所得开发数据与海洋石油开发的历史拟合较好,模拟的误差在20%-30%之间,误差较小。研究表明投资是影响新增净探明石油可采储量、储采平衡率和销售收入这三个指标可持续发展的主要因素,提出增大总投资、保持适当的勘探开发投资比例、努力提高技术等对策建议。

Using the principle of the system dynamic, the internal information feed-back structure and mechanism are studied. Taking the offshore oil resource for example, the dynamic mechanism of marine oil exploitation is established based on the latest data of CNOOC. Comparing with the real data, the results of this model similar to it, the error is between 20% and 30%. It turns out that investment is the key factor in influencing the sustainable development of the net proved recoverable reserves of remaining oil, the balance of recovery and the sales revenue. For sustainable exploitation, it is necessary to keep steady increase of total investment, keep equal percentage for the exploitation of oil, and upgrade the technology upgrade.