经济结构调整、物价水平波动与农民增收--东部沿海省份面板数据的实证分析

Industrial Restructuring,Rural CPI and Farmers' Income:An Empirical Analysis in East China

改革开放以来,我国农村人均纯收入增长率远远低于GDP平均增长率。通过对东部沿海经济发达省份1978～2008年Panel Data数据研究,我们发现,经济结构调整是影响农村人均收入的重要因素,对农村人均收入增长率有负面影响。农村物价水平的波动对农民收入增长率也起到负面作用。对此,要积极采取措施对农村中的资源要素流动进行合理引导,在城市化、工业化的进程中要注意反哺农业和农村经济,加大对农业的投入和金融支持。政府需要发挥好宏观调控的作用,防止农产品生产资料和农村消费市场价格的大起大落。

Since the economic reform and opening policy,the rural per capita net income growth has far lagged behind the average growth rate of GDP. Through analysis on the panel data from 1978 to 2008,we found that the rural industrial structure adjustment has produced negative effects on the farmers' income growth. Fluctuations of rural CPI has also played a negative role in the income growth of the farmers. In this regard,the government should actively take measures to guide the flow of resources in rural areas,while paying attention to support agriculture and rural economy in the process of urbanization and industrialization. At the meantime,the government needs to play the role of macro-control to prevent the agricultural production and the rural consumer market price from fluctuating drastically.