河北省农村居民收入与消费关系实证研究

Empirical Study on the Relationship between Rural Residents'Income and Consumption

依据1983～2007年河北省农村居民实际收入和消费的相关数据,运用协整理论和格兰杰因果检验相关知识,对农村居民实际收入和消费关系进行检验。结果表明,1983～2007年,河北省农村居民人均纯收入和人均消费支出之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;Grang-er-Sims因果检验表明,短期内,河北省农村居民实际收入对实际消费有显著影响,但这一影响是逐渐减弱的;河北省农村居民实际消费对实际收入的影响在内短期影响并不显著,但随着时间的推移,这一影响逐渐显著;在河北省农民实际收入与实际消费的相互影响和作用过程中,从短期来看,主要体现为农民实际收入对实际消费的影响作用;从中期来看,两者之间的相互影响都较为显著;从长期来看,主要体现为实际消费对实际收入的影响。鉴于此,提出河北省短期内可通过增加农民收入来扩大消费,长期内则可以借助扩大内需来拉动经济增长。

According to the actual income and consumption data of rural residents in Hebei Province in the years 1983-2007,relationship between the actual income of consumption of rural residents is tested by co-integration theory and Granger-Sims Causality Test. Result shows that per capita net income and per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents in Hebei Province have long-term and stable equilibrium relationship in the years 1983-2007. Granger-Sims Causality Test shows that in the short term,actual income of rural residents has significant impact on the actual consumption in Hebei Province,but the impact is gradually weakened. Impact of actual consumption of rural residents is insignificant on the actual income in the short term in Hebei Province. However,the impact will gradually become significant as time passes by. In the short term,relationship between actual income and actual consumption of peasants in Hebei Province is mainly manifested in the impact of peasants＇ actual income on actual consumption. And in the medium term,the interaction between the two is more significant. In the long term,it is mainly manifested in the impact of actual consumption on actual income. Therefore,Hebei Province can expand consumption through increasing peasants＇income in the short term and can stimulate economic growth through expanding domestic demand in the long term.