基于BP网络的葡萄病害发生预测系统的开发研究

Research of System Based on BP Network for Prediction of Grape Disease

[目的]提高葡萄病害预测的准确度。[方法]介绍基于BP网络的葡萄病害预测系统的开发研究,包括网络结构的确定、网络学习参数的选取、样本数据的处理等方面。[结果]对河北省怀来县葡萄病害发生程度进行预测,取得良好的效果。[结论]运用BP网络模型对葡萄病害的发生量进行预测预报,适合于影响葡萄病害发生因素多、关系复杂、难以定量分析以及需长期预测的情况,对于葡萄病害发生程度的预测具有重要的参考价值。

[Objective]The research aimed to improve the prediction accuracy of grape diseases. [Method]A system based on BP network for the prediction of grape disease was introduced. It included the design of a network structure,the selection of parameter for network study,the processing of sample data,etc. [Result]This system was adopted to predict the grape disease in Huailai County,Hebei Province. A good effect was obtained. [Conclusion]With the use of BP network model,this system could forecast the extent of grape disease,so it was applicable to the instance which was influenced by many factors,complicated,hard to analyze quantitatively and time consuming,which was of value to the prediction of grape disease occurrence.