1961～2006年石河子垦区降水序列变化规律及干旱预测

Variation Law of Precipitation Sequence during 1961-2006 and Drought Prediction in Shihezi Reclamation Area

以1961～2006年石河子垦区的年降水量为基础数据,分析得出该地区降水的时间序列变化特征及规律:研究区年降水总体呈上升趋势,其中,20世纪90年代以前增加缓慢,90年代以后增加显著。以1961～1996年的年降水量数据为建模数据,1997～2006年的数据为检验数据,运用灰色系统的灾变预测方法,建立各分区的灾变预测模型GM(1,1),重点对石河子市和下野地未来发生干旱的年份进行了预测,得出石河子、下野地未来可能发生干旱的年份分别为2012、2010年。

Based on annual precipitation in Shehezi reclamation area during 1961-2006,the variation characteristics and law of precipitation time sequence in the area were analyzed：annual precipitation generally showed upward trend,increasing slowly before 20th century 90＇s,increasing significantly after 90＇s.With annual precipitation during 1961-1996 as modeling data,1997-2006 as testing data,and by using gray system＇s cataclysm forecasting technique,disaster prediction model GM（1,1）of every district was established,2012,2012 were forecasted as the next year of drought in shihezi city and xiayedi.