2009年春末初夏持续高温天气分析及预报模型

Analysis and Forecasting Method of Durative High-temperature in Late Spring Early Summer in 2009

分析了平凉市2009年春末初夏持续高温天气特征,日最高气温≥32℃日数部分县区为近40年最多,平均气温、平均最高气温、地面最高温度、地面平均温度大部分县区破历史极值。对造成持续高温天气的500hPa环流特征进行分析,归纳出3种类型的高温环流形势,2009年6月份的高温天气主要是由大陆暖高压造成的。同时,利用欧洲数值预报产品用MOS建立了6～8月高温预报方法,通过6月检验,高温24、48、72、96、120h预报准确率分别达76.6%、69.5%、61.4%、58.1%、51.9%。

The characteristics of Pingliang＇s continuous hot weather was analyzed from late spring to early summer in 2009.The result showed that the days of durative high temperature weather which temperature ≥32 ℃ was the most of nearly 40 years in parts of the area,the average temperature,average maximum temperature,surface maximum temperature and surface average temperature mostly create the history extremal.Based on analysis of the 500 hPa circulation characteristic of the durative high temperature weather course,3 kinds of the high temperature circulation patterns were summed up;and durative high temperature weather is to the continent high type mainly in June.Using Europe numerical forecast data and using the method of MOS numerical interpretation method,forecastiing equation of high temperature in Pingliang is established from June to August.The method has been used in June,and its accuracy amounts to 76.6%,69.5%,61.4%,58.1%,51.9% in 24、48、72、96、120 hour of high-temperature.