漳州市近48年气候变化特征分析

Analysis on Characteristics of Climate Change in Recent 48 Years in Zhangzhou City

利用漳州市10个地面气象站1961～2008年共48年的气温和降水量资料,运用线性倾向估计和变差系数分析方法,对历年平均气温和降水量的主要气候特征及其变化特征进行了分析。结果表明,在全球气候变暖的背景下,漳州市的年平均气温也在逐年升高,气候倾向率为0.19℃/10a,线性变化趋势显著,明显高于全球变暖趋势,接近于全国平均水平,尤其是20世纪90年代以来变暖趋势更为明显;气温的变化趋势还存在年代际、季节和区域差异,20世纪90年代最大、秋冬季大于春夏季、东南部沿海地区高于西北部内陆地区;年平均降水量也呈逐年增多的变化趋势,其气候倾向率为60.5mm/10a,线性变化趋势显著,也存在年代际、季节和区域差异;降水量的变化趋势与气温的变化趋势并不同步。

Based on the meteorological data of annual average temperature and amount of precipitation of 10 meteorological stations in Zhangzhou in recent 48 years（from 1961 to 2008）,by using linear-trend estimation methods and the coefficient of variation analysis,the characteristics of climate change in Zhangzhou were analyzed and studied.The results showed that in the background of global climate warming,the annual average temperature in Zhangzhou in recent 48 years rise year by year with climate trend rate of 0.19 ℃/10 a,and that a linear increased trend is significant,and its warming rate is significantly higher than the global warming rate,and close to the national average level,particularly since 90＇s the warming trend is more obvious,and there are climate trend differences in different ages,different seasons and different regions（the largest in the 90＇s,the larger in autumn and winter than in spring and summer,the larger in the southeast region than in the northwest region）.The annual amount of precipitation are also increasing year by year in a significant linear trend,its climate trend rate is 60.5 mm/10 a,and there are climate trend differences between different ages,different seasons and different regions.But the sync phenomenon between precipitation change trends and temperature change trends doesn＇t exist.