基于“配料”的暴雨预报

Ingredients-Based Heavy Rainfall Forecasting

本文介绍一种使用显著"配料"进行暴雨预报的方法。2007年和2003年的暴雨个例分析表明,我国主要的几类暴雨发生过程中具有一些共同的动力、热力特征,表征深厚湿对流发生发展的物理"配料"具有明显的演变特征。综合环境场动力、热力条件配置和物理"配料"分析了暴雨的"配料法"主观预报思路。并利用数值模式输出产品追踪有利于暴雨发生的"配料"演变发展了"配料法"暴雨客观预报方法,应用于国家级降水预报业务中。

An approach to forecast heavy precipitation is developed,using the concept of basic ingredients.Analyses of the heavy rainfall cases in 2007 and 2003 show that rainstorms share some common dynamic and thermodynamic environmental conditions,and their physical ingredients obviously vary with developing of deep moist convective systems in several heavy rainfall types in China.How to synthetically analyze the dynamic and thermodynamic environmental conditions and basic physical parameters in forecasting heavy rainfall is introduced.A technique for objective forecasting heavy rainfall which is applied in the National Meteorological Center is developed,using the monitor of basic ingredients variety by the numerical weather prediction output.