陕西省能源、环境与经济关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship among Energy,Environment and Economy in Shaanxi Province

依据2007年全国30个省市的能源、环境、经济多项指标的统计资料,通过实证对陕西省与其它各省市3E系统协调度进行了比较.结果表明,2007年陕西省的3E协调度位居全国第十,陕西省的3E系统发展较为平衡,但各子系统的协调度很不好.在研究能源消费、环境污染对经济增长的影响程度时,选取1987—2007年作为样本期间,对陕西省3E系统指标建立多元线性回归模型,然后进行统计学和计量检验以及经济意义的分析,发现随着能源消费的增加,该省的GDP反而减少,说明陕西的经济发展与工业废气排放量呈正相关关系,而与工业废水的排放呈负相关关系.

Based on energy, environment and economy indicators of 30 provinces and cities in China in 2007, this paper compares the 3E system coordination of Shaanxi province with ones of the others. The result shows that 3E system coordination of Shaanxi ranked 10th. 3E system coordination of Shaanxi developed a bit balancedly, but the sub-system coordinations were quite bad. Selecting 1987-2007 as a 21 years period, the author establishes mutiple linear regression model for 3E system of Shaanxi,then makes statistical test,variable inspection and economical analysis. It shows that with the energy consumption growth, GDP in Shaanxi would decrease. Economy development is positively correlated with industry emmisions, but negatively correlated with the industrial waste water discharge.