基于多主体仿真的创新扩散模型研究——对企业创新产品营销战略的探讨

Innovation Diffusion Model Based on Multi-agent System:Research on Marketing Strategy of New Products

区别于现有创新扩散模型,本文提出的基于multi-agent仿真方法的模型,考虑了个体异质性及移动性的特征。模型认为个体在决策是否接受一项创新产品时,主要考虑两方面的因素:一是衡量产品质量是否达到要求;二是衡量周围与其相联结的社会网络中人群的影响。模型用NetLogo仿真软件运行,其仿真结果论证了产品刚刚投放市场时应适当加大广告强度,而随着市场占有率的增加可以适当降低广告强度。同时,本文也讨论了人口密集度、产品特性和个体的社会影响阈值等因素对创新扩散的影响,并提出了相应的营销策略。

Distinguishing from present innovation diffusion models,this paper proposes a model based on multi-agent simulation methods,takes individuals＇ heterogeneity and movement nature into account.The model figures out that when each agent has to decide whether to accept an innovation product,he mainly considers two aspects：first,whether the quality of the product reaches the requirement;second,calculate the influence of the mass around him.The NetLogo software is applied to simulate the model,and the result demonstrates that advertisements should be increased at the beginning of putting products into the market,and could be decreased when the market share has reached a certain level.The three factors of population density,product attributes and threshold of social influence which affect the rate of innovation diffusion are also discussed in this paper and relevant marketing strategies are put forward.