一种多源先验分布权重确定的新方法

A New Method for Determining Weights of Multi-Sources of Prior Distribution

可靠性评估中融合多源验前信息的重要一环就是确定不同验前分布的合理权重。针对目前计算先验分布权重方法存在的缺陷,提出了基于试验数据置信分布的方法,以简便合理地确定权重。该方法直接与要评定的指标相联系,从源头上减小评定的误差。示例证明,该方法简便易行,在可靠性试验分析等工程研究领域具有应用价值。

An important step of multi-sources of prior information fusion is to get a reasonable weight for each prior distribution in reliability assessment. There are some different shortcomings of existing methods which calculate the weights for prior distribution, in order to determine the weights easily and rationally, it presents a new method which based on test data＇s confidence distribution. The method is directly linked to the targets which we want to assess, so it can reduce the assessment error from the headstream. An example shows that the method is simple and has obvious application values in the reliability analysis and other project fields.