中国农村居民代际收入流动性研究

Empirical Research on Intergenerational Income Mobility of Chinese Rural Residents

通过收入均值法和百分位转换矩阵法,对中国农村居民的代际收入流动性状况进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)现阶段,中国农村居民的代际收入流动性较差,存在较明显的收入代际传递现象;东部和中部地区农村居民的代际收入弹性显著高于西部地区;(2)对于各地区内部而言,处于收入分配两端的农村居民的代际收入流动都较为封闭;高收入组群子辈收入向下流动的趋势逐渐增强,低收入组群子辈收入向上流动的趋势逐渐减弱。

By using transition matrix,empirical research has been made on the degree of intergenerational income mobility for Chinese rural residents. The results show that：（1） there is rather obvious passing domino effect on the intergenerational income of Chinese rural residents,whose mobility is low,and the intergenerational income elasticity of eastern and central rural residents is higher than that of western rural residents. （2） The intergenerational income mobility in the bottom and top quintile is close-ended. And from eastern region to western region,we find that the possibility of the offspring of upper quintile to move downward to lower income status increases,and the possibility of the offspring of lower quintile to move upward to higher income status decreases.