灰色分析法与特尔菲法在杭甬运河运输量预测中的应用

Gray Analysis Method and Delphi Method in Hang-Yong Canal Traffic Forecast

"杭甬运河"是浙江省"十五"期间重点水运工程,其航道升级与改造给运量预测带来许多不确定性。本文选用灰色预测与特尔菲法两种定性、定量相结合方法,对杭甬运河改造工程未来的运输发展量的生成进行综合预测与评价,以期获得准确的运量数据,为运河的工程建设、经济评价、航道管理及工业布局提供决策依据。

The ＂Hang-Yong Canal＂ is Major water projects in Zhejiang Province During the ＂10th five years＂.Waterway renovation brings many uncertainties.We integrated forecast for the new ＂Hang-Yong Canal＂ traffic by ＂Gray Analysis method＂ and ＂Delphi method＂,Hope to get accurate traffic volume,For the economic evaluation,engineering construction,industrial distribution channel management and provide basis for decision-making.