基于VAR模型下产业结构调整与区域经济关系分析——以江西省高安市为例

Industrial Structure Adjustment and Regional Economy Based on VAR Model: Taking Gao’an City of Jiangxi Province as An Example

以1987—2008年江西省高安市的三大产业产值和人均GDP为统计分析数据,基于向量自回归(VAR)模型分析三大产业产值对区域经济的影响.结果表明:第二产业、第三产业是形成区域经济增长的关键因素,从长期看,第二产业产值对区域经济增长有促进作用,第三产业产值对区域经济增长有阻碍作用,但第二产业产值对区域经济的贡献仅为24.35%,排在第三产业产值(41.66%)的后面.因此,第二产业是未来产业结构调整的重点,而建筑陶瓷产业是第二产业支柱之一,高安市应加大对建筑陶瓷产业的投入力度.

Based on the data of output value of the three major industries and per capita GDP in Gao＇an city of Jiangxi province from 1987 to 2008, it analyzes the effect of output value of the three major industries on the regional economy with VAR method. The results show that secondary and tertiary industries are key factors to regional economy growth, In the long run, output value of the secondary industry promotes regional economy growth, but output value of the tertiary industry inhibit regional economy growth. However, but the contribution rate of output value of the secondary industry to regional economy is only 24.35%, behind that of the tertiary industry （41.66%）.Therefore, the secondary industry is the focus of industrial structure adjustment in the future. Architectural ceramics industry is one of the struts of the secondary industry, Gao＇an City should increase investment to this industry.