乌鲁木齐市人口时序变化特征及其预测

Time serial of population change and its prediction for Urumqi city

依据1949-2006年的数据,对乌鲁木齐市57a来的多项人口指标进行了时序变化分析,结果发现:人口数量变化经历了四个典型阶段,迁入人口是该区人口增长的主要因素。性别比先增加后减少,1971-2006年保持在正常值范围内。家庭结构发生了巨大变化,平均每户人数从1960的最高值6.50降至2006年时的3.19。利用时间序列趋势模型对各指标进行了预测及分析,结果表明:2010-2020年,该区的人口数量持续增加,至2020年将超过300万大关,但人口自然增长率却以0.24‰/a的速度下降,2020年时出现拐点。外来人口仍是该区人口数量增长的主要驱动力。平均每户人数逐年减少,下降速度为0.04人/a,单身族和晚婚晚育夫妇数量显著增多。在校学生数与学校数量的增长速度严重失衡,二者之比高达3.03。教师的教学压力持续上升,至2020年每一教师负担的学生数量将比预测起始年多5.04人。

Based on the data of Urumqi city from 1949 to 2006,the law of population time serial change was studied.The results showed that the people moved from other places into urumqi city is the major factor for population growth.Since 1971 the family structure changed in a large extent.Average family members declined from the highest value of 6.50 to 3.19 in 2006.Using time-series model to predict the population trends,and the results indicated that from 2010 to 2020,natural growth rate becomes lower and lower,and the inflection point will come in 2020.But at the same period,the total population increases.Moreover,it will surpass three million.Immig rants is also the main factor which causes the population growth in the predicting period.The number of single person,and couples which marry and have baby in a later time of their life,becomes more and more.The quality of education is not very good because each teacher will have more students.So it is necessary to build more new middle schools or enlarge the original ones.