内蒙古呼和浩特地区气温和降水量变化趋势分析

Research on change trend of temperature and precipitation in Huhhot

采用气候倾向率法、Mann-Kendall法和R/S方法相结合,对呼市地区37年平均气温、降水量的变化特点和未来趋势进行分析。结果表明:该地区气温和降水量的变化特点与未来趋势不同。气温在过去37年间呈上升趋势,变化率为0.56℃/10a,同时Hurst指数为0.971,说明当地未来气温增加的趋势可能还将持续;过去37年的年降水量呈现减少趋势,且降水量的Hurst指数仅为0.571,说明当地年降水量减少的趋势并没有持续性,未来仍保持目前的宽幅震荡状态。

By using linear、Mann-Kendall and Rescaled Range Analysis（R/S）,the change characteristics and the future trends of the annual precipitation and the annual average temperature in Huhhot were analyzed.The results showed that change characteristics and the future trends of the temperature and annual precipitation were not same entirely.The temperature increased in the past 37 years with a change rate by 0.56℃ per ten years,while the Hurst index was 0.971which indicated there existed obvious Hurst phenomenon in the future.Although the annual precipitation was declining in the past 51 years,but the Hurst index of the precipitation was only 0.571,which meant that the annual precipitation in the future was likely to change or remain stable in this region.