基于Fuzzy-AHP的电力企业运行与维护外包风险分析及评价

Analysis and evaluation of electric power enterprise operation outsourcing risk based on Fuzzy-AHP

电力企业运行与维护外包是电力企业一种新的管理模式,其主旨是将电厂的运行与维护外包给专业的运营公司,目的在于降低发电成本,使商业利润最大化,同时使电力企业更加专注于自身核心业务,提高企业竞争力。但是它在创造高收益的同时不免产生高风险,而电力企业运维外包的风险研究在我国尚属空白,立足这一现状,尝试运用了AHP与模糊数学综合评价法相结合的数学方法对其进行分析与评价。首先阐述了外包及电力企业运维外包的概念、特点,在此基础上通过资料调研与专家访谈,遵循系统性、科学性、可操作性、可比性的评价指标选取原则,构建出一套系统而全面电力企业运维外包风险评价指标体系,包括5个基准层(一级)因素和17个指标层(二级)因素;其次根据电力企业运维外包风险评价中的层次性和模糊性,运用层次分析法确定了风险层次、进行了两两因素间的重要性权重专家打分及各阶层判断矩阵的构造,确定了各指标对其上层因素的权重,再运用模糊数学理论建立评价模型,包括各级的模糊评判模型的构建、评判指标处理方法的选择及最终风险的评判标准。最后通过算例验证该评价体系的有效性和可行性。

Electricity power enterprises operation and maintenance outsourcing is a new business management model,its main purpose is to outsource the plant operation and maintenance to professional operators so as to reduce electricity costs and maximize the business profit,at the same time the power enterprises can focus on their core business,enhance the competitiveness.But while it creates high-yield production,it is inevitably very risky,and the study of electric power enterprise operation outsourcing risk is still blank in China.Based on this situation,try to analysis and evaluation it by using the F-AHP evaluation method.Firstly,The concept and model characteristics of the electric power enterprises Operation Outsourcing were analyzed comprehensively,and a set of assessment indexes of electric power enterprises Operation Outsourcing risk was established,including 10 first level indicators and 37 second level indicators;according to the hierarchy and ambiguity of the electric power enterprises Operation Outsourcing Risk,the method combined with AHP and Fuzzy was proposed：the weight of each indicator to its upper factor was determined based on AHP,then evaluation model was built with the use of fuzzy mathematical theory.Finally,the final adoption of numerical example demonstrated the effectiveness and feasibility of the evaluation system.