改革开放30年政府支出对城乡居民生活水平影响效应分析——基于TVP模型的实证研究

Effect of Government Expenditures on Urban and Rural Living Standards since the Chinese Reform and Openness 30 Years Ago——Empirical Study Based on TVP Model

基于中国1978～2008年的时间序列数据,采用时变参数(TVP)模型对我国政府支出对城乡居民生活水平的影响效应进行比较分析。实证结果表明:政府总支出促进了我国城乡居民生活水平的提高,但对城镇的影响大于农村。分类支出上,政府行政性支出对城镇居民生活水平产生正向促进作用,对农村居民生活水平产生负向作用;政府基本建设支出对城镇居民生活水平先产生正向作用,但最近几年,产生一定的负影响,而对农村居民生活水平从1990年后一直产生正向作用,且对城乡居民生活水平影响有逐渐趋同趋势;政府民生性支出对城乡居民生活水平一直有正向促进作用,但对农村居民生活水平的影响高于城镇。

Based on Chinese time series data from 1978 to 2008, this paper makes use of the time - varying parameter model to compare and analyze the effect of government expenditures on urban and rural living standards. The result shows ： the government total expenditures significantly prompt both urban and rural living standards, but the effect on the former is stronger. In terms of specific expenditures, the administrative expenditures have a positive effect on urban living standard, while the effect on rural living standard is negative; the infrastructure expenditures have a positive effect on urban living standard, but recently it turns to be negative, while the effect on rural living standard has been positive since 1990 and the gap between the two gradually diminishes; the expenditures on the people＇ s livelihood have taken a positive effect on urban living standard since the beginning, but the effect on rural living standard is stronger.