广东省耕地资源动态变化及其与经济发展的耦合关系

Dynamic Changes of Cultivated Land Resources and Its Coupling Relationships to Economic Development in Guangdong Province

根据广东省耕地数据,引入耕地变化率、耕地分布重心等指标,研究广东省耕地资源动态变化的基本过程及其空间差异,然后运用库兹涅茨曲线拟合经济增长与耕地保护的关系,并利用耕地面积变化与GDP增长的对数相关关系式对不同经济发展水平每增加等量GDP所占用的耕地面积进行了估算。首先分析广东省耕地资源动态变化,结果表明,近20年来,广东省的耕地资源和人均耕地总体上呈递减的趋势,其平均耕地补充系数为0.52,人地矛盾突出;其次分析广东省耕地变化空间差异,结果表明,除粤西的茂名市和云浮市为耕地增加外,其余地区均有不同程度的减少,尤其是珠江三角洲核心地带急剧减少,而基于GIS的耕地重心计算表明,广东全省耕地重心呈现向耕地后备资源丰富、人地矛盾较为缓和的地区移动的趋势;最后对广东省各市经济增长与耕地保护的关系进行分析,结果表明,它们的关系符合库兹涅茨曲线关系,并大致可以分为倒"U"型、单调上升型、单调递减型、"N"型和"∽"型四种类型,同时研究发现广东省耕地面积随GDP的增长呈对数型递减分布,预测结果表明广东省耕地面积随着经济发展水平的增加逐渐减少。

According to origin cultivated land data in Guangdong Province and introducing the change rate and gravity center of cultivated land, the article studies the change process of cultivated land and spatial difference in Guangdong Province. Then the article uses the Kuznets Curves to simulate relationships between economic development and cultivated land protecting, meanwhile it estimates the lost areas for cultivated land when increasing the equivalent GDP in different economic development levels using the index correlation between farmland area and GDP growth. Firstly, the article analyzes the dynamic changes of cultivated land in Guangdong Province. The result shows that both of cultivated land resources and Per Capita cultivated land areas has been reducing since 1986, and the annual average cultivated land supplement coefficients is 0.52 in Guangdong Province., and thus further intensify the human-land conflict. Secondly, the article analyzes the spatial difference Of cultivated land changes. The result shows that the cultivated land in Maoming and Yunfu area has increased, and the other area has reduced, especially Pearl River delta is increasingly outstanding. Based on gravity center of cultivated land model, the gravity center of cultivated land has moved to the regions where there are more reserve resources and less contradiction between human and land. Finally, the article analyzes the coupling relationships between economic development and cultivated land, and the result shows their relationships accord with the Kuznets Curves, the article divides them into four types： the reversed ＂U＂ type; monotonous rise type, monotonous decline type and ＂N＂ type and ＂∽＂ type. Similarly the research indicates it is logarithm degression distributing of cultivated land with GDP increasing in Guangdong Province, and the lost areas for cultivated land are different when increasing the equivalent GDP in different economic development levels.