多循环植物病害病情控制效果计算公式的比较

Comparative study of the formulas for calculating of outbreak control multi-cycle plant disease

比较了3个多循环植物病害病情控制效果计算公式:Abbott公式,Henderson-Tilton公式和杨信东公式,认为杨信东公式为最优公式。总结出Abbott公式的误差产生规律:处理区与对照区的初始病情的比值越大,误差越大;处理区与对照区的初始病情的值越小,误差越大;随着处理区与对照区的终期病情的增大,公式的计算误差明显增大。Henderson-Tilton公式的误差产生规律:处理区与对照区的初始病情的比值越小,误差越大;处理区与对照区的初始病情的值越大,误差越大;随着处理区与对照区的终期病情增大,公式的计算误差明显增大。在处理区与对照区的初始病情相差悬殊,处理区与对照区的终期病情大于0.5甚至更多的条件下Abbott公式、Henderson-Tilton公式会产生较大误差,不能客观评价杀菌剂或其它控病措施的功效,而采用杨信东公式则能客观评价杀菌剂或其他控病措施的效果。

In this study,after comparing of three formulas that they are Abbott formula,Henderson-Tilton formula and Yang xindong formula for calculating of outbreak control multi-cycle plant disease,there is the result：Yang xindong formula is the optimization.In Abbott formula,the more the radio of the initial epidemic situation in treatment and control is,the greater error is;The smaller the values of the initial epidemic situation in treatment and control are,the greater error is.The greater the values of final epidemic situation in treatment and control are,the greater error is obviously.In Henderson-Tilton formula,the smaller the radio of the initial epidemic situation in treatment and control is,the greater error is.The greater the values of the initial epidemic situation in treatment and control are,the greater error is.The greater the values of final epidemic situation in treatment and control are,the greater error is obviously.When the initial epidemic situations in treatment and in control are great disparity,or the final epidemic situations in treatment and in control are greater than 0.5 even,the control effect can＇t be evaluate with Abbott formula and Henderson-Tilton formula but Yang xindong formula.