黄土塬区气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响

The impacts of climate change and human activities on river flow in the Loess Tableland of China

以黄土高塬沟壑区的黑河流域(泾河支流)为研究区域,基于Mann-Kendall和双累积曲线等方法分离了1972-2000年气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响。结果表明,黑河流域气候趋向暖干而径流减少;以径流突变年份为界将研究时段分为两段(1972-1992年和1993-2000年),后段较前段降水减少75.4 mm、温度升高0.5℃,而径流减少29 mm。气候变化和人类活动均导致黑河径流减少,但贡献率不同,分别为24%和76%。人类活动是导致黑河径流减少的主要驱动力,但气候变化的影响也不容忽视,在进行生态建设和水资源管理时应予以充分考虑。

This study separated the effects of climate change and human activities on river flow in the Heihe watershed（a tributary of Jinghe river） during 1972-2000 using statistical methods of the Mann-Kendall trend tests and double mass curve.Results showed that climate tended to become warmer and drier while river flow became lower for the period.The whole study period could be divided into two sub-periods（1972-1992 and 1993-2000） by the year when river flow underwent abrupt change.Compared with the former period,precipitation decreased by 75.4 mm and temperature increased by 0.5 ℃ while rive flow decreased by 29 mm in the latter period.Both climate change and human activities caused a decrease in river flow,with contributions being 24% for the former and 76% for the latter.Overall,the results indicated that human activities were the main driving forces for the decrease of river flow.However,the impacts of climate change can not be ignored,and the effects should be taken into account when carrying out ecological construction and water resources management in the Loess Plateau.