摘要
对国家气候中心１９９６年１～１２月用Ｔ６３模式所作的５００ｈＰａ３４次月延伸预报进行了检验评估，并对模式的系统性误差进行了分析和订正。在假定订正后的Ｔ６３延伸预报完全准确的条件下，用ＥＣＭＷＦ旬平均高度场和西南区域月平均气温和月雨量资料，建立了用Ｔ６３预报产品预测西南区域月要素场的一种完全预报（ＰＰ）的动力统计关系。并对西南区域１９９６年２月至１９９７年１月逐月平均气温和降水进行了预报试验。
The accuracy of 34 cases in 500hPa height extended range forecast of T63 model in 1996 from NNC is evaluated.And the systematical error of the model is analysed and corrected.The perfect predication method (PPM) which is dynamical statistic model is formulated by using the data of the correction products of T63 model,the decade mean height of ECMWF,and the monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation southwest China.At last,the monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation in southwest China from Feb.1996 to Jan.1997 are forecasted.
关键词
产品释用
PP模型
短期气候预测
动力气候模式
Extended range forecast,Application of NWP products,Perfect prediction method,Short range climatic forecast
