摘要
为了制作四川盆地主汛期降水预报对相似方法作了改进，首先是根据四川盆地主汛期降水的前３个特征向量分别寻找有物理基础的前期信号作为预报因子，然后充分考虑各因子对总降水量贡献大小定义因子场的相似，确定相似年，最后引入“集成”的思想，由５个相似年的降水场得到预测年降水的定量客观预报。１９８１～１９９４共１４年的预报结果准确率高于当前业务预报水平。
Using the data of monthly 500hPa height and SST field from 1957 to 1995 and analysing the empirical orthogonal function,the early physical forecast signals of the time coefficient which is the precipitation during flood season in Sichuan Basin by using EOF are obtained.Based on the early signals,regarded as the forecast factors,the precipitation during flood season in Sichuan Basin in 1998 is calculated by using integrated and improved similarity method.The past 14 years forecast accuracy is satisfactory.
