摘要
提出了一种基于多元时间序列的Ｋｎ近邻短期气候预测模型。该模型既保留了Ｋｎ近邻算法的优良特性，同时又考虑了气候系统有关状态量之间的物理关系和动力行为特性。用该模型对云南各区域的平均月雨量距平值进行预测试验，其对云南１９９１年５月～１９９８年６月的月雨量距平值预测检验的距平符号相关准确率为６３．５％，对云南１９９１～１９９８年的５月雨量距平值预测检验的距平符号相关准确率则可达到７０．０％。该模型的建立具有一定的实际业务应用价值。
A Kn adjacent forecast model based on multi time series is introduced. In this model, the fine features of Kn adjacent algorithm , physical relations and dynamic properties among state variables of the climatic system are considered. The verifications of monthly precipitation forecasts for Yunnan Province from May, 1991 to June, 1998 show that the forecast accuracies of anomaly sign of this method reaches 63.5%, and in Mays of 1991～1998 it reaches 70.0%. This model is important for the actual operational predictions.
关键词
月雨量预测
多元时间序列
Kn近邻预测模型
Monthly precipitation forecast, Multi time series ,Kn adjacent forecast model
