摘要
对近１０年来四川盆地汛期降水预测水平进行了定量评估，并与国家气候中心预测水平作了对比。在分析影响四川盆地汛期降水主要物理因素的基础上，提出了四川盆地汛期旱涝预测的基本思路和技术方法，并在实际业务预报中取得了较好的效果。
The precipitation forecast result in flood season of the last 10 years in Sichuan Basin is evaluated and compared with the NCC forecast result.The main physical factors which influence rain variation in high water season in Sichuan Basin are analysed.Based on this analysis,a conception model of dryness wetness forecast in flood season in Sichuan Basin is established.The operational forecast result is satifactory in recent years.
关键词
四川盆地
汛期
旱涝预测
技术法
旱灾
涝灾
Sichuan Basin,Flood season,Dryness wetness forecast,Forecast method
