基于能值改进生态足迹模型的天津市近10年生态安全趋势评价

Assessment of Tianjin's eco-security change in the past decade by an energy-based eco-footprint model

运用基于能值改进的生态足迹模型,对天津市1998—2007年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行时间序列的测度,在此基础上对天津市生态安全的动态变化趋势进行评价。结果表明,10年间天津市人均生态足迹迅速增长,由1998年的0.588 hm^2/人增长到2007年的1.063hm^2/人,人均生态赤字从1998年的0.274 hm^2/人扩大到2007年的0.569 hm^2/人,万元GDP生态足迹从1998年的0.409 hm^2/人下降到2007年的0.235 hm^2/人,这说明天津市在近10年的发展中,生产生活强度大幅度增加,资源消费已远超过承载力水平,但资源利用效率提高较快。天津市生态压力指数不断增加,已从稍不安全状态发展到很不安全状态,总体上天津市社会经济的不可持续度在增加。

This paper is aimed at introducing a modified energy-based ecological footprint model developed by the present author to evaluate the dynamic eco-footprint and the eeo-bearing capacity of Tianjin City in the past decade on the basis of evaluating its ecological security. Result shows that the ecological footprint per capita of the city has gone up quickly from 0.588 hm^2· cap^- 1 in 1998 to 1.063 hm^2·cap^- 1 in 2007, which means its ecological deficit per capita has abruptly gone up from 0.274 hm^2·cap^- 1 in 1998 to 0.569 hm^2·cap^- 1 in 2007. In other words, the eco-footprint of one million GDP has dropped from 0.409 hm^2·cap^- 1 in 1998 to 0.235 hm^2·cap^- 1 in 2007. Thus, the investigation has pointed out that the fast development over the past decade, particularly, the booming expansion of production and the ever-increasing living intensity in the city has far exceeded the tolerable limit of the natural ecosystem, though the effi- ciency of the resource exploitation has been improved with a better economic mode. With the continuous rise of the ecological tension in2 dex, the city can be said to have experienced an eco-security status from the third grade to the forth one, reveling its non-sustainability for its socio-economic expansion. Therefore, over-exploitation of natural resources for the time being in the city has now to pay more attention to the dominant tendency, which has in turn brought about imbalance with the eco-system. Thus, a new challenge facing Tianjin is to pay more attention to the analysis natural and human resources consumption with a greater effort to improve its energy based ecological footprint model.