基于模糊层次分析法的客滚码头运营系统风险分析

On the risk of the ro-ro passenger-ship terminals' operational system based on a fuzzy hierarchical analysis process

针对影响客滚码头运营安全的关键性因素和薄弱环节,建立了客滚码头运营安全评价的层次模型,并提出了模糊层次分析法应用中确定各因素权重的步骤。结合大连港客滚码头实际运行状况,给出了各层元素的单排序权重和总排序权重,并对各因素进行了定性和定量分析。针对分析结果,提出了基于"人-船-环境-安全管理"的安全运营系统与应急救援体系相结合的事故预防对策。

The paper is focused on the study of the risks of the ro-ro passenger-ship terminals＇ operational system based on a fuzzy hierarchical analysis process. As is known, water transportation of passengers is one of the key traffic means in Dalian City, but the ro-ro passenger ship terminals＇ operation still remains in the preliminary stage of development. So, this paper has first of all introduced the safety assessment of the to-to passenger ship terminal＇ s operation and then the fuzzy analysis hierarchy proeess（FAHP） method. Whereas it is necessary to point out the deficiencies of the traditional comprehensive assessment methods and the superiority of Ro-ro passenger ship terminals＇ operation, we do believe that it is absolutely necessary to see the underlying potential risks or hazardous factors existing for its applications in China＇s ro-ro passenger ship harbors. For example, with regard to the relevant safe affairs that are likely to take place in th ro-ro passenger ship harbor＇ s operation process, such as the passengers＇ dropping or drowning, vehicles＇ collision, dangerous chemicals leakage which may be brought into the harbor area secretly, as well as the accidents with the ship berthing or leaving the harbor unexpectedly. To eliminate such unexpected liabilities with the ro-ro passenger ship terminal＇s operation, we have proposed the analysis steps for the application of the method. Taking the actual operation conditions of Dalian＇s ro-ro passenger ship terminals for example, in case the single ranking weight and the total weight of the elements in each layer were given, it would be possible to analyze and work out the danger- ous and negative factors for the smooth transportation through qualitative and quantitative analysis. The accident prevention measures, which should be taken along with the safety operation system based on ＂the comprehensive passenger-vehicle-track-safety management＂ in an emergency rescue system, have also been put forward. With the analysis results of the FAHP, it can be thought that the safety checklist analysis method we have brought about will be likely to be put into actual application to identify the hazards in the ro-ro passenger ship terminal＇ s operation based on the criterions. Thus, it can be seen that the research work specified in this paper is expected to be taken as a reference to the research of the ro-ro passenger ship terminal safety operation status at least at home for the time being.