苏州市恶性肿瘤日死亡率与大气主要污染物的关系

Relation between the Daily Mortality of Malignant Tumor and the Air Pollutant in Suzhou

[目的]探讨大气主要污染物对居民恶性肿瘤日死亡率的影响。[方法]收集2002～2007年苏州地区恶性肿瘤日死亡人数和大气中可吸入颗粒物(PM10)、二氧化硫(SO2)、二氧化氮(NO2)以及一氧化碳(CO)等污染物日平均浓度,经时间序列法平稳化后,再运用多元线性回归法进行相关性和确定性分析。[结果](1)该地区居民恶性肿瘤日死亡率与7天前(lag7)的大气中SO2、NO2及当日(lag0)PM10平均浓度存在相关(P<0.05),其中SO2和PM10每升高10μg/m3,恶性肿瘤死亡的相对危险度(RR)和95%可信区间(CI)分别为1.004(1.003～1.006,P<0.01)和1.001(1.000～1.002,P<0.05),日死亡率分别上升0.44%(0.29%～0.60%)和0.10%(0.01%～0.19%);而NO2则呈负相关(P<0.01)。(2)居民恶性肿瘤日死亡率与大气污染物日平均浓度存在线性回归(P<0.05),回归方程为:y=4.985+3.963[SO2]-2.878[NO2]+0.577[PM10];模型预测的结果比较准确。(3)自变量SO2浓度标化后的偏回归系数为0.392,对应变量恶性肿瘤日死亡率的影响最大。[结论]该地区居民恶性肿瘤日死亡率与大气中SO2和PM10日平均水平呈正相关,与NO2则呈负相关;控制该地区SO2的污染水平可能有利于降低居民恶性肿瘤死亡率。

[ Objective ] To investigate the effect of the main atmospheric pollutants on the mortality of malignanttumor in Suzhou City. [ Methods ] The daily death cases due to malignant tumor and daily average air concentration of inhaled particulate matter （ PM10 ）, sulfur dioxide （ SO2 ）, nitrogen dioxide （ NO2 ） and carbon monoxide （ CO ） were collected; then the relationship between them was analyzed with methods of time series and muhiple linear regression. [ Results ] （ 1 ）There were significant correlations between the daily mortality of malignant tumor and the daily mean concentrations of air pollutants （ for example, SO2 （ lag7 ） and PM10 （ lag0 ）, P 〈 0.05 ） in this city. The estimated relative risk （ RR ） and 95% interval confidence （ 95% Cl） of the mortality of malignant tumor for each 10 μg/m^3 elevation of SO2 and PM10 were 1.004（ 1.003-1.006, P 〈 0.01 ）and 1.001（ 1.000-1.002, P 〈 0.05 ）respectively; and the raise ratio of the daily mortality of malignant tumor for SO2 and PM10 were 0.44%（ 0.29%-0.60% ） and 0.10% （ 0.01%-0.19% ） ; while there was negative correlation for NO2（ P 〈 0,01 ）. （ 2 ）There were obvious multiple linear regression between the mortality and the concentration of pollutants （ P 〈 0.05 ）. The regression equation was y =4.985＋ 3.963[ SO2 ]-2.878[ NO2 ]＋0.577[ PM100]. The predicted result was coincident with the actual number.（ 3 ）Based on the result of the standardized coefficients, the maximum influence was the independent variable of S02 on the dependent variable of the mortality of malignant tumor. [ Conclusion ] In this city, there was significantly positive correlation and linear regression between the mortality of malignant tumor and the concentration of air pollutants （ SO2 and PMl0, but not NO2 ）. The key point about the decrease of the mortality of malignant tumor was to control the pollution level of SO2.