广东物流产业与经济增长的互动关系分析

On the Interaction Between Logistics Industry and Economic Growth in Guangdong

广东经济转型势在必然,发展物流产业来促进产业升级和推动经济增长是重要措施之一。利用广东省1978-2007年的统计数据,采用Eviews 5.0计量经济软件对广东物流产业与经济增长之间关系进行平稳性检验、协整检验、G ranger因果检验。结果表明：广东经济增长和物流产业发展步伐不一致,广东物流业发展表现出一定的滞后性;二者之间仅存在单向因果关系,即经济增长对物流产业发展有一定的促进作用,而物流产业对经济增长的促进作用尚不显著,进而提出了广东物流产业的发展思路。

It is commonly recognized that economic transformation in Guangdong is inevitable so as to upgrade its industrial structure.To do so,an important way is to strengthen logistics industry.Thus,the interaction between logistics industry and economic growth in Guangdong is analyzed.Based on the statistical data from 1978 to 2007 and with the help of the econometrics software Eviews5.0,stability test,co-integration test,and Granger-causality test are carried out.Results show that economic growth and logistics development in Guangdong are inconsistent,that is,the latter is lag behind the former.It is a one-way causal relation,that is,the economic growth simply drives the development of logistics industry,but the logistics industry has no significant effect on the economic growth.Thus,it suggests strengthening logistics industry so as to further promote Guangdong＇s economic growth.