低碳约束下我国贸易结构的合理性研究

A Study on the Rationality of China’s International Trade Structure under Low-carbon Emission Constraints

国际贸易为贸易品消费者所在国提供了环境污染转移至其他国家的机会。我国作为世界第二大贸易国和CO2高排放国,已成为国际贸易与污染排放责任关系问题的一个重要研究对象。本文首先介绍了当前测算直接碳排放的基本原则,以及目前常用的测算隐含碳排放的理论方法——投入产出模型。利用1997年、2002年、2007年的非竞争型投入产出表及相关年份的能源数据、国际贸易数据,系统测算了我国对外贸易总量及贸易结构的隐含碳排放情况,对对外贸易结构及变化趋势的合理性进行了分析。总结了1997年至2007年我国贸易结构的变化情况,以及贸易隐含碳排放的变化趋势。最后,依据贸易隐含碳排放现状,提出了调整我国对外贸易结构的相关建议。

The international trade provides a mechanism for consumers to shift environmental pollution associated with their consumption to other countries. As the world＇ s second largest trader and the biggest producer of carbon dioxide, China has been one of the most frequently-used test cases in literatures when assessing to what extent the international trade influences the responsibilities of emissions. In this paper, firstly, the basic principles of direct carbon emissions as well as the current estimates method of embodied carbon emissions input-output model are described; the embodied carbon emissions of China＇s international trade are calculated; the key sectors of the highest embodied carbon emissions are analyzed by using non-competitive input-output tables of years 1997, 2002 and 2007 as well as the data of energy using and international trade on these relevant year; and the rationality of the structure of our international trade is analyzed. The changes in China＇s trade structure and its changes in embodied carbon emissions from year 1997 to 2007 are summarized through empirical analysis. Finally, some suggestions about our international trade structure are proposed.