2001-2008年山东省青岛市流行性感冒超额死亡估计

Estimate of excess mortality attributed to influenza in Qingdao,2001-2008

目的建立城市水平的Serfling回归模型,估计青岛市2001-2002至2007-2008年度的流行性感冒(流感)超额死亡,为中国北方温带地区估计流感死亡负担奠定基础。方法使用根本死因为呼吸及循环系统疾病(R&C)和全死因(AC)两类死亡数据,分全年龄组、<65岁和≥65岁年龄组,分别拟合Serfling回归模型,估计青岛市2001-2008年的流感超额死亡数和超额死亡率。结果 2001-2002至2007-2008年度,使用R&C估计的青岛市全年龄组、<65岁和≥65岁年龄组的流感超额死亡数分别为平均每个年度1018(95%CI:484～1552)、77(27～127)和853(424～1282),超额死亡率分别为13.8/10万人年(95%CI:6.6/10万～21.1/10万)、1.2/10万人年(95%CI:0.4/10万～1.9/10万)和108.4/10万人年(95%CI:53.8/10万～162.9/10万)。结论 2001-2008年,青岛市每年流感超额死亡估计超过1000人,其中≥65岁老年人占90%以上,提示老年人为流感疫苗接种的重点人群。

Objective This study established city-level Serfling regression models to estimate the excess mortality attributed to influenza in Qingdao from 2001-2002 through 2007-2008,and provide the basis for estimating mortality burden attributable to influenza in China＇s northern temperate zone.Methods Age-specific Serfling regression models were established based on the data of underlying respiratory and circulatory （RC） deaths and all cause （AC） deaths to estimate the excess mortality attributed to influenza for three age groups in Qingdao：the all-age,65-year-old and ≥65-year-old ones.Results From 2001-2002 through 2007-2008,the RC-based estimates of the annually averaged excess death attributed to influenza for the all-age,65-year-old and ≥65-year-old groups were 1018 （95%CI：484-1552）,77 （27-127） and 853 （424-1282）,respectively;the estimates of the excess mortality for the three groups were 13.8 （95%CI：6.6-21.1）,1.2 （95%CI：0.4-1.9） and 108.4 （95%CI：53.8-162.9） per 100 000 person-years,respectively.Conclusion From 2001 to 2008,the estimated excess deaths attributable to influenza exceeded 1000 each year in Qingdao,of which ≥90% belonged to the ≥65-year-old group.Therefore,influenza vaccine inoculation should be extensively provided for the elderly,susceptible population.