降落伞可靠性评定及其试验量决策

Parachute Reliability Assessment and Decision-Making of Experiment Times

降落伞是回收着陆分系统的核心部分,其可靠度下限指标一般很高。若仅依据成败型系统级空投试验来评定该指标,需安排大量系统级空投试验,这在工程上通常难以接受。为了能够全面地反映降落伞的可靠性,本文提出了基于Bayes理论的降落伞可靠性评定方法。该方法将降落伞强度试验数据作为验前信息,采用Bayes理论将其与系统级空投试验信息融合起来,据此评定降落伞的可靠性。该方法建立在严格的理论推导之上,评估结果与工程实际情况相符,所计算的系统级空投试验量较经典方法大为降低,可大量节约试验经费和工作量。将上述方法应用于某型降落伞可靠性分析,结果表明该方法是有效可行的。

Parachute is a core equipment of a recovery and landing system.and requests high reliability.If the success/failure data from the airdrop experiment are only used to assess the reliability of a parachute,a mass of airdrop experiments are necessary.That is unacceptable in the engineering because of the high experiment cost.A new assessing method is proposed in this paper.In this method,the parachute＇s strength test data is took as the prior information,and integrated with the airdrop experiment information to assess the parachute reliability by Bayesian theory.This method is derived from a strict mathematical theory,and the assessing results are consistent with the parachute＇s actual situation.The times of airdrop experiments calculated by this method is much less than the classic method,thus decreasing a large number of experiment costs and workloads.The application example have demonstrated the effectiveness of the approach proposed.