气候变化对藏北地区草地生产力的影响模拟

Simulation of climate change impacts on grassland productivity in Northern Tibet

利用政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)的A2和B2方案,通过区域气候模式系统PRECIS与草地生态模型SPUR相联接,模拟评估未来2071—2100年藏北地区草地生产力的变化。结果表明:2种温室气体排放情景下,温度升高、太阳总辐射降低和降水量增加的区域,各类型草地地上生物量基本呈增加的趋势;降水量减少的区域,高嵩草型草地地上生物量呈减少的趋势;藏北地区的草地生产力不大可能从CO2富集上得到多大好处。

Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2,and by using the Regional Climate Model （PRECIS） and grassland SPUR model,the changes of grassland productivity in Northern Tibet in 2071-2100 were simulated.It was predicted that under scenarios A2 and B2,the aboveground biomass of all kind grasslands in the regions,where temperature raised,total solar radiation decreased,and precipitation increased,would be increased,while that of Kobrezsia pygmaea grassland in the regions,where precipitation decreased,would be decreased.Our results suggested that the grassland productivity in Northern Tibet might not benefit from CO2 fertilization.