用博弈论方法模拟流域调水中与生活用水分配及污染减排有关的利益冲突(英文)

USING GAME THEORY BASED APPROACHES TO SIMULATE STAKEHOLDER CONFLICTS CONCERNING DOMESTIC WATER ALLOCATION AND POLLUTION REDUCTION IN INTER-BASIN WATER TRANSFER IN CHINA

以博弈论模拟方法为基础,对南水北调中线工程中有关生活用水分配及污染减排所存在的利益冲突进行了模拟仿真分析.以回归分析法来构建博弈各方的利益函数,以经济价值评估法把非货币价值换算为可计算的经济价值,用成本效益分析法比较不同战略下的博弈模拟结果,并且用情景分析来探讨博弈的未来不确定性.近几年的实际观察数据与模拟结果的对比验证了模型的精确性及有效性.博弈模拟结果表明合作博弈虽使某些博弈方利益受损,但所有博弈方却整体受益.结果也表明了污染减排,因为某些博弈方的不愿合作,而导致"囚徒困境" .对未来不同情景的模拟结果显示,即便在最优的情景下,非合作也难以解决缺水区的问题.此博弈方法及其结果也对南水北调中水资源的分配、水价的制定及生态补偿有很大的参考价值.

The game theoretic based simulation approaches are proposed to analyze conflicts concerning domestic water allocation and pollution reduction in the Middle Route of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China. Regression methods are used to formulate payoff functions of the players, economic valuation methods （EVMs） to transform non-monetary value into economic one, cost-benefit analysis （CBA） to compare the game outcomes, as well as scenario analysis to investigate the future uncertainties. The validity of the game simulation was evaluated by comparing predictions with observations. The main results proved that cooperation would make the players collectively better off, though some players would face losses. It also revealed that water pollution reduction would result in a prisoners’ dilemma due to unwilling cooperation from some players. Scenario simulation results displayed that water deficit problem in the water scarce area could not be solved without cooperation even under an optimistic scenario. The application of those approaches and results will be informative for a strategic planning on water distribution, water pricing and ecological compensation in the regions concerned.