以经济为基础的图书出版种数预测模型研究及完善

Research on and Improvement of Books-publishing Bibliocount's Prediction Model Based on Economy

分析了当前图书出版种数预测模型存在的缺陷,以经济基础决定上层建筑和哈佛学派实证研究的SCP理论为基础,结合回归分析和概率学的数理方法,提出了以经济因素为自变量的预测模型以及利用预测置信度的概念修正预测结果的表达方式。

This paper analyzes the main defects of the current books-publishing bibliocount＇s prediction model in two aspects of the selection of independent variables and the expression of predicting results,and according to the theory of that the economic foundation determines the superstructure and the theory of SCP put forward by Harvard scholars in their empirical studies,and connecting with the mathematical methods of regressive analysis and probability,puts forward a prediction model setting economic factors as independent variables and corrects the expression of predicting results based on the prediction confidence,and points out that people should pay more attention to the multivariate model and dynamic model in future research on books-publishing bibliocount＇s prediction model.