“热钱流出之谜”与隐性资本流动——对热钱流动规模的重新估算

The Puzzle of Hot Money Outflow and the Imperceptible Capital Flow:Re-estimated the Scale of the Hot Money Flow

我国"半开放、半管制"的国际收支(BOP)结构特征和"宽进严出、放长限短"的资本管制特点使得基于资本自由流动国家的热钱估算方法不完全适用我国。热钱在中国流动具有隐蔽性和非法性,必须剔除诸如贸易伪报、资本夹杂和地下钱庄等隐性渠道对热钱流动规模的影响。本文以世界银行间接法和我国BOP为基础,首先提出"热钱流出之谜",然后分析热钱在中国流动的隐性渠道,并将其纳入估算模型,估算结果基本反映了热钱在中国流动的趋势和特点,具有科学性和合理性。

Due to BOP structure of ＂half open and half control＂ and capital control feature of ＂easy entering and difficult going out, encouraging long capital but limiting short money＂ , the estimation methods for hot money based on the country of capital liberalization does not completely apply in China. Hot Money flow in our country are covet and illegal. So we must get rid of the effects of trade mis-invoicing, capital inclusion and underground banking. Based on the indirect approach of the World Bank and BOP of China, this paper first puts forward the ＂Puzzle of Hot Money Outflow＂ and then analyzes the covert channels of hot money in China and brings it into the estimated model. The estimated result reflects the trend and trait of the hot money on the whole.