基于差异驱动原理的道路交通安全评价

Road traffic safety evaluation method based on discrepancy-driven theory

为了科学地评价省级区域的道路交通安全水平,提出了10个评价指标。依据2005年中国道路交通事故数据,运用差异驱动原理确定了5个指标的权重并构建了评价方法,综合评价了中国大陆31个省、直辖市、自治区的道路交通安全水平。研究结果表明,中国大陆各个省级区域道路交通安全水平差异较大,西部地区省份落后于东部。特别是西藏、青海等西部地区的道路交通安全水平与当地的社会经济发展状况之间的不协调性尤为明显,进而说明道路交通安全水平与当地社会经济发展水平的协调性更能体现区域交通安全状况。

To evaluate scientifically the road traffic safety level（ RTSL） in provincial regions of China,10 evaluation indexes and a corresponding comprehensive evaluation method were proposed. According to the road traffic accident data in China mainland in 2005,the weights of 5 evaluation indexes were determined by discrepancy-driven theory. The RTSLs in 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipaties directly under the Central Government,China,were evaluated by proposed method. The results show that the difference of the RTSL between the provincial regions,China,is pretty large,and those in the eastern regions are better than the western. It is obvious that the RTSL does not harmonize with the local social-economical development in some western provinces and regions,especially such as Tibet and Qinghai. The harmony between the RTSL and local social-economical development is an important indicator to characterize the local road traffic safety situation.